Max Hans Rehberg vs Francisco Comesana prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francisco Comesana 0 - Max Hans Rehberg 0. Max Hans Rehberg is favored with a 61.8% win probability.
Francisco Comesana
1498
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Max Hans Rehberg
1731
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Francisco ComesanaMax Hans Rehberg
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Max Hans Rehberg
Francisco Comesana
Max Hans Rehberg leads by 233 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Max Hans Rehberg SPW
65.2%
Above tour avg
Francisco Comesana SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
● Max Hans Rehberg has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Max Hans Rehberg ML
-261
Model: 62%
Edge: -10.5%
Francisco Comesana ML
+212
Model: 38%
Edge: +6.1%
Model Projection
Francisco Comesana ML +212 · +6.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Max Hans Rehberg holds a commanding 233-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Max Hans Rehberg has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Max Hans Rehberg 61.8%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →