Moyuka Uchijima vs Claire Liu prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Claire Liu 0 - Moyuka Uchijima 0. Moyuka Uchijima is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Claire Liu
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Moyuka Uchijima
1454
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Claire LiuMoyuka Uchijima
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Moyuka Uchijima
Claire Liu
Claire Liu leads by 94 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Moyuka Uchijima SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
Claire Liu SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
● Moyuka Uchijima has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Moyuka Uchijima ML
+112
Model: 51%
Edge: +3.5%
Claire Liu ML
-126
Model: 49%
Edge: -6.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Claire Liu has a moderate 94-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Moyuka Uchijima has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Moyuka Uchijima 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →