Moyuka Uchijima vs Claire Liu prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Claire Liu 0 - Moyuka Uchijima 0. Moyuka Uchijima is favored with a 51.1% win probability.
Claire Liu
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Moyuka Uchijima
1454
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Claire LiuMoyuka Uchijima
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Moyuka Uchijima
Claire Liu
Claire Liu leads by 94 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Moyuka Uchijima SPW
54.9%
Below tour avg
Claire Liu SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
● Moyuka Uchijima has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Moyuka Uchijima ML
+112
Model: 51%
Edge: +3.9%
Claire Liu ML
-126
Model: 49%
Edge: -6.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Claire Liu has a moderate 94-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Moyuka Uchijima has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Moyuka Uchijima 51.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →