Rafael Jodar vs Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 62.6% win probability.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
1406
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandar KovacevicRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Rafael Jodar leads by 142 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
61.6%
Below tour avg
Aleksandar Kovacevic SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-869
Model: 63%
Edge: -27.1%
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML
+620
Model: 37%
Edge: +23.6%
Model Projection
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML +620 · +23.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar holds a commanding 142-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 62.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →