Rafael Jodar vs Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 58.1% win probability.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
1406
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandar KovacevicRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Rafael Jodar leads by 142 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
61.6%
Below tour avg
Aleksandar Kovacevic SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-8588
Model: 58%
Edge: -40.8%
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML
+3033
Model: 42%
Edge: +38.7%
Model Projection
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML +3033 · +38.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar holds a commanding 142-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 58.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →