Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jil Teichmann 0 - Rebeka Masarova 0. Jil Teichmann is favored with a 60.8% win probability.
Jil Teichmann
1508
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Rebeka Masarova
1506
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jil TeichmannRebeka Masarova
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (1,570 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rebeka Masarova
Jil Teichmann
Jil Teichmann leads by 2 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Rebeka Masarova SPW
52.1%
Below tour avg
Jil Teichmann SPW
57.8%
Above tour avg
● Jil Teichmann has a significant serve advantage (+5.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rebeka Masarova ML
-188
Model: 39%
Edge: -26.1%
Jil Teichmann ML
+165
Model: 61%
Edge: +23.1%
Model Projection
Jil Teichmann ML +165 · +23.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (2-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jil Teichmann has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jil Teichmann 60.8%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →