Roman Safiullin vs Casper Ruud prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Casper Ruud 0 - Roman Safiullin 0. Casper Ruud is favored with a 71.7% win probability.
Casper Ruud
1677
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roman Safiullin
1400
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Casper RuudRoman Safiullin
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roman Safiullin
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud leads by 278 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roman Safiullin SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
Casper Ruud SPW
66.1%
Above tour avg
● Casper Ruud has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roman Safiullin ML
+632
Model: 28%
Edge: +14.6%
Casper Ruud ML
-890
Model: 72%
Edge: -18.2%
Model Projection
Roman Safiullin ML +632 · +14.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Casper Ruud holds a commanding 278-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Casper Ruud has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Casper Ruud at 72%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Casper Ruud 71.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →