Taylor Townsend vs Coco Gauff prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Taylor Townsend 0. Coco Gauff is favored with a 68.2% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1883
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Taylor Townsend
1574
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffTaylor Townsend
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Taylor Townsend
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff leads by 309 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Taylor Townsend SPW
53.4%
Below tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
60.0%
Above tour avg
● Coco Gauff has a significant serve advantage (+6.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Taylor Townsend ML
+560
Model: 32%
Edge: +16.6%
Coco Gauff ML
-736
Model: 68%
Edge: -19.8%
Model Projection
Taylor Townsend ML +560 · +16.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Coco Gauff holds a commanding 309-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Coco Gauff has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Coco Gauff at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coco Gauff 68.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →