Terence Atmane vs Thanasi Kokkinakis prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thanasi Kokkinakis 0 - Terence Atmane 0. Terence Atmane is favored with a 54.2% win probability.
Thanasi Kokkinakis
1527
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Terence Atmane
1413
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Thanasi KokkinakisTerence Atmane
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Terence Atmane
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Thanasi Kokkinakis leads by 114 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Terence Atmane SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
Thanasi Kokkinakis SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Terence Atmane ML
-280
Model: 54%
Edge: -19.5%
Thanasi Kokkinakis ML
+242
Model: 46%
Edge: +16.6%
Model Projection
Thanasi Kokkinakis ML +242 · +16.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Thanasi Kokkinakis holds a commanding 114-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Terence Atmane has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Terence Atmane 54.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →