Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Thiago Agustin Tirante 0. Thiago Agustin Tirante is favored with a 59.5% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizThiago Agustin Tirante
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
● Thiago Agustin Tirante has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
-126
Model: 60%
Edge: +3.8%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
+116
Model: 40%
Edge: -5.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thiago Agustin Tirante 59.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →