Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Thiago Agustin Tirante 0. Thiago Agustin Tirante is favored with a 54.4% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizThiago Agustin Tirante
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,912 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
● Thiago Agustin Tirante has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
-5640
Model: 54%
Edge: -43.9%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
+2543
Model: 46%
Edge: +41.9%
Model Projection
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML +2543 · +41.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thiago Agustin Tirante 54.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →