Vilius Gaubas vs Luca Van Assche prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luca Van Assche 0 - Vilius Gaubas 0. Vilius Gaubas is favored with a 54.2% win probability.
Luca Van Assche
1471
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Vilius Gaubas
1542
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Luca Van AsscheVilius Gaubas
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Vilius Gaubas
Luca Van Assche
Vilius Gaubas leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Vilius Gaubas SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Luca Van Assche SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Vilius Gaubas ML
+188
Model: 54%
Edge: +19.4%
Luca Van Assche ML
-206
Model: 46%
Edge: -21.5%
Model Projection
Vilius Gaubas ML +188 · +19.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Vilius Gaubas has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Vilius Gaubas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Vilius Gaubas 54.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →