Vilius Gaubas vs Luca Van Assche prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luca Van Assche 0 - Vilius Gaubas 0. Vilius Gaubas is favored with a 54.2% win probability.
Luca Van Assche
1471
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Vilius Gaubas
1542
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Luca Van AsscheVilius Gaubas
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Vilius Gaubas
Luca Van Assche
Vilius Gaubas leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Vilius Gaubas SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Luca Van Assche SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Vilius Gaubas ML
+188
Model: 54%
Edge: +19.4%
Luca Van Assche ML
-206
Model: 46%
Edge: -21.5%
Model Projection
Vilius Gaubas ML +188 · +19.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Vilius Gaubas has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Vilius Gaubas has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Vilius Gaubas 54.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →