Wu Yibing vs Flavio Cobolli prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Flavio Cobolli 0 - Wu Yibing 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 66.1% win probability.
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Wu Yibing
1562
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Flavio CobolliWu Yibing
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.5% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Wu Yibing
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli leads by 105 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Wu Yibing SPW
57.8%
Below tour avg
Flavio Cobolli SPW
62.0%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Wu Yibing ML
+221
Model: 34%
Edge: +2.7%
Flavio Cobolli ML
-243
Model: 66%
Edge: -4.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 105-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Flavio Cobolli at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 66.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →