Yannick Hanfmann vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Yannick Hanfmann 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 55.4% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Yannick Hanfmann
1575
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicYannick Hanfmann
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Yannick Hanfmann
Hamad Medjedovic
Yannick Hanfmann leads by 72 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Yannick Hanfmann SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
● Hamad Medjedovic has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Yannick Hanfmann ML
+152
Model: 45%
Edge: +4.9%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-172
Model: 55%
Edge: -7.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Yannick Hanfmann has a moderate 72-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 55.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →