Croatia vs England prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects England 1.86 - Croatia 0.97. England is favored with a 56.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
England
1.86
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Croatia
0.97
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EnglandDrawCroatia
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Croatia
018
England
029
Projected
England 1.86 — Croatia 0.97
Actual
England 4 — Croatia 2
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
England 56.5%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →