Germany vs Ecuador prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Ecuador 1.2 - Germany 1.82. Germany is favored with a 56.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Ecuador
1.2
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Germany
1.82
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EcuadorDrawGermany
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Germany
029
Ecuador
018
Projected
Ecuador 1.2 — Germany 1.82
Actual
Ecuador 2 — Germany 1
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Germany 56.3%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →