South Korea vs Mexico prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Mexico 1.69 - South Korea 1.09. Mexico is favored with a 48.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Mexico
1.69
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
South Korea
1.09
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
MexicoDrawSouth Korea
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
South Korea
018
Mexico
029
Projected
Mexico 1.69 — South Korea 1.09
Actual
Mexico 1 — South Korea 0
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mexico 48.3%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →