Spain vs Uruguay prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Uruguay 0.87 - Spain 1.79. Spain is favored with a 56.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..
Uruguay
0.87
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Spain
1.79
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
UruguayDrawSpain
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spain
029
Uruguay
018
Projected
Uruguay 0.87 — Spain 1.79
Actual
Uruguay 0 — Spain 1
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spain 56.5%
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Total
2.7
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →