United States vs Turkey prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Turkey 1.2 - United States 1.65. United States is favored with a 48.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Turkey
1.2
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
United States
1.65
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
TurkeyDrawUnited States
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
United States
029
Turkey
018
Projected
Turkey 1.2 — United States 1.65
Actual
Turkey 3 — United States 2
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
United States 48.9%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →