Closing Line Value Statistics 2026
Closing line value is the most cited "gold standard" in betting analytics — and almost nobody publishes their own CLV distribution. This page publishes ours, measured on every pick where a trusted closing line could be matched, as of 2026-10-16.
Quick answer: Across 1,644 matched picks, 35.0% beat the closing line; mean CLV was -0.0% and median CLV was 0.0%. Picks with positive CLV won 50.4% of the time (n=575) versus 48.8% for picks with negative CLV (n=1,069) — directionally supportive of CLV as a skill signal, but a far smaller gap than most CLV evangelism implies. Data: Olympus Bets Analytics resolved-pick ledger, updated daily.
Key Statistics (Citable)
- Only 35.0% of 1,644 matched picks from a systematic betting model beat the closing line, per Olympus Bets Analytics CLV measurement — beating the close consistently is rarer than betting content suggests.
- Picks that beat the close won 50.4% (n=575) versus 48.8% for picks that did not (n=1,069) — a real but modest ~2-point gap, per the same study.
- Mean CLV across the full sample was -0.0% with a median of 0.0% — the distribution centers near zero, per Olympus Bets Analytics.
CLV by League
Line movement behaves differently by market: high-liquidity markets close efficiently, while niche markets move less and later. Leagues with at least 25 matched picks, sorted by sample size. "% CLV+" is the share of picks that beat the close.
| League | Matched Picks | Mean CLV | % CLV+ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLF | 582 | +0.14% | 37.5% | 298W-234L |
| NBA | 301 | -0.40% | 38.2% | 146W-153L |
| MLB | 263 | -0.52% | 35.0% | 130W-127L |
| NHL | 146 | -0.28% | 18.5% | 77W-68L |
| CBB | 112 | +1.79% | 38.4% | 54W-56L |
| SOCCER | 94 | +0.42% | 23.4% | 44W-47L |
| WNBA | 49 | -1.22% | 38.8% | 21W-26L |
| CS2 | 26 | -0.17% | 42.3% | 7W-19L |
How to Read These Numbers
The honest interpretation of our own data is threefold:
- CLV is hard to capture. A model that publishes hours before game time is betting into lines that professional groups keep moving until close. Two-thirds of our picks end up on the wrong side of that movement. Anyone reporting they beat the close 60%+ of the time over a large sample is either exceptional or not measuring honestly.
- CLV correlates with winning — modestly. Our positive-CLV picks outperform by about two percentage points of win rate. That supports the theory, but it also shows CLV is a noisy proxy on samples this size, not a verdict on any single bet.
- We optimize for realized results, not CLV. CLV is one diagnostic among several. The track record — resolved wins, losses, and units — is the measure we hold ourselves to.
New to the concept? The closing line value guide explains the mechanics, and the free CLV calculator computes it for your own bets.