Closing Line Value Statistics 2026
Closing line value is the most cited "gold standard" in betting analytics — and almost nobody publishes their own CLV distribution. This page publishes ours, measured on every pick where a trusted closing line could be matched, as of 2026-10-05.
Quick answer: Across 1,656 matched picks, 36.1% beat the closing line; mean CLV was -0.1% and median CLV was 0.0%. Picks with positive CLV won 50.8% of the time (n=597) versus 49.1% for picks with negative CLV (n=1,059) — directionally supportive of CLV as a skill signal, but a far smaller gap than most CLV evangelism implies. Data: Olympus Bets Analytics resolved-pick ledger, updated daily.
Key Statistics (Citable)
- Only 36.1% of 1,656 matched picks from a systematic betting model beat the closing line, per Olympus Bets Analytics CLV measurement — beating the close consistently is rarer than betting content suggests.
- Picks that beat the close won 50.8% (n=597) versus 49.1% for picks that did not (n=1,059) — a real but modest ~2-point gap, per the same study.
- Mean CLV across the full sample was -0.1% with a median of 0.0% — the distribution centers near zero, per Olympus Bets Analytics.
CLV by League
Line movement behaves differently by market: high-liquidity markets close efficiently, while niche markets move less and later. Leagues with at least 25 matched picks, sorted by sample size. "% CLV+" is the share of picks that beat the close.
| League | Matched Picks | Mean CLV | % CLV+ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLF | 571 | +0.12% | 37.5% | 292W-230L |
| MLB | 321 | +0.05% | 41.4% | 165W-150L |
| NBA | 302 | -0.73% | 39.4% | 146W-154L |
| NHL | 125 | -0.30% | 13.6% | 67W-57L |
| CBB | 113 | +0.74% | 39.8% | 55W-56L |
| SOCCER | 94 | +0.35% | 21.3% | 44W-47L |
| WNBA | 49 | -0.28% | 36.7% | 21W-26L |
How to Read These Numbers
The honest interpretation of our own data is threefold:
- CLV is hard to capture. A model that publishes hours before game time is betting into lines that professional groups keep moving until close. Two-thirds of our picks end up on the wrong side of that movement. Anyone reporting they beat the close 60%+ of the time over a large sample is either exceptional or not measuring honestly.
- CLV correlates with winning — modestly. Our positive-CLV picks outperform by about two percentage points of win rate. That supports the theory, but it also shows CLV is a noisy proxy on samples this size, not a verdict on any single bet.
- We optimize for realized results, not CLV. CLV is one diagnostic among several. The track record — resolved wins, losses, and units — is the measure we hold ourselves to.
New to the concept? The closing line value guide explains the mechanics, and the free CLV calculator computes it for your own bets.