Eckroat, Austin vs Hoge, Tom prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hoge, Tom 99 - Eckroat, Austin 97. Eckroat, Austin is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Hoge, Tom
-0.19
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Eckroat, Austin
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hoge, TomEckroat, Austin
-116
Best Odds
+15.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Eckroat, Austin
9097104
Hoge, Tom
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Eckroat, Austin
Strokes Gained
-0.04/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.157 SG adj
Expected Finish
97th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Eckroat, Austin
-0.04 SG
EF 97th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Eckroat, Austin
Hoge, Tom
-0.19 SG
EF 99th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.9%
Books Say
53.7%
Edge
+15.2%
Eckroat, Austin vs Hoge, Tom: Model gives Eckroat, Austin 61.9% win probability vs 53.7% implied (+15.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 97.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Eckroat, Austin 61.9%
+15.2 pts
Spread
+0.1
+15.2 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →