Hughes, Mackenzie vs Glover, Lucas prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Glover, Lucas 93 - Hughes, Mackenzie 97. Hughes, Mackenzie is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The spread is 0.29.
Glover, Lucas
-0.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.08
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Glover, LucasHughes, Mackenzie
+107
Best Odds
+19.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hughes, Mackenzie
9097104
Glover, Lucas
8693100
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hughes, Mackenzie
Strokes Gained
+0.08/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.224 SG adj
Expected Finish
97th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.08 SG
EF 97th
Skill Gap
+0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Hughes, Mackenzie
Glover, Lucas
-0.22 SG
EF 93th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.9%
Books Say
48.3%
Edge
+19.8%
Hughes, Mackenzie vs Glover, Lucas: Model gives Hughes, Mackenzie 57.9% win probability vs 48.3% implied (+19.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 97.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hughes, Mackenzie 57.9%
+19.8 pts
Spread
+0.3
+19.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →