Henley, Russell vs Burns, Sam prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Burns, Sam 29 - Henley, Russell 26. Henley, Russell is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The spread is 0.35.
Burns, Sam
+1.45
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Henley, Russell
+1.78
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Burns, SamHenley, Russell
-105
Best Odds
+6.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
192633
Burns, Sam
222936
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.78/round
World Class
Course Fit
poor
-0.278 SG adj
Expected Finish
26th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.78 SG
EF 26th
Skill Gap
+0.35 SG/round
tight edge for Henley, Russell
Burns, Sam
+1.45 SG
EF 29th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.6%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+6.7%
Henley, Russell vs Burns, Sam: Model gives Henley, Russell 54.6% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+6.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 26.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 54.6%
+6.7 pts
Spread
+0.3
+6.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →