Hodges, Lee vs Nakajima, Keita prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nakajima, Keita 92 - Hodges, Lee 93. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
Nakajima, Keita
-0.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Hodges, Lee
-0.07
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Nakajima, KeitaHodges, Lee
-109
Best Odds
+13.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hodges, Lee
8693100
Nakajima, Keita
859299
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hodges, Lee
Strokes Gained
-0.07/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.074 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Hodges, Lee
-0.07 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Nakajima, Keita
-0.03 SG
EF 92th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.2%
Books Say
52.1%
Edge
+13.5%
Hodges, Lee vs Nakajima, Keita: Model gives Hodges, Lee 59.2% win probability vs 52.2% implied (+13.5% edge). Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 59.2%
+13.5 pts
Spread
-0.0
+13.5 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →