Homa, Max vs Finau, Tony prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 79 - Homa, Max 84. Homa, Max is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The spread is 0.11.
Finau, Tony
+0.28
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Homa, Max
+0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Finau, TonyHoma, Max
+102
Best Odds
+10.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Homa, Max
778491
Finau, Tony
727986
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Homa, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.40/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.051 SG adj
Expected Finish
84th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Homa, Max
+0.40 SG
EF 84th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Homa, Max
Finau, Tony
+0.28 SG
EF 79th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.6%
Books Say
49.5%
Edge
+10.3%
Homa, Max vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Homa, Max 54.6% win probability vs 49.5% implied (+10.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 84.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Homa, Max 54.6%
+10.3 pts
Spread
+0.1
+10.3 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →