Keefer, Johnny vs Hoey, Rico prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hoey, Rico 80 - Keefer, Johnny 80. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Hoey, Rico
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Keefer, Johnny
+0.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hoey, RicoKeefer, Johnny
-107
Best Odds
+6.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Keefer, Johnny
738087
Hoey, Rico
738087
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
+0.21/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.214 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
+0.21 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hoey, Rico
+0.29 SG
EF 80th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.0%
Books Say
51.7%
Edge
+6.8%
Keefer, Johnny vs Hoey, Rico: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 56.0% win probability vs 51.7% implied (+8.3% edge). Expected finish: 80. AI: poor course history.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 56.0%
+6.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+6.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →