Li, Haotong vs Olesen, Thorbjorn prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Olesen, Thorbjorn 86 - Li, Haotong 89. Li, Haotong is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The spread is -0.21.
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.25
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Li, Haotong
+0.05
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Olesen, ThorbjornLi, Haotong
-105
Best Odds
+11.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Li, Haotong
828996
Olesen, Thorbjorn
798693
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Li, Haotong
Strokes Gained
+0.05/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.083 SG adj
Expected Finish
89th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Li, Haotong
+0.05 SG
EF 89th
Skill Gap
-0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Olesen, Thorbjorn
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.25 SG
EF 86th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.0%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+11.3%
Li, Haotong vs Olesen, Thorbjorn: Model gives Li, Haotong 57.0% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+11.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 89.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Li, Haotong 57.0%
+11.3 pts
Spread
-0.2
+11.3 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →