Meissner, Mac vs Finau, Tony prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 79 - Meissner, Mac 71. Meissner, Mac is favored with a 60.1% win probability. The spread is 0.32.
Finau, Tony
+0.28
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Meissner, Mac
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Finau, TonyMeissner, Mac
-125
Best Odds
+8.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Meissner, Mac
647178
Finau, Tony
727986
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Meissner, Mac
Strokes Gained
+0.61/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.146 SG adj
Expected Finish
71th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Meissner, Mac
+0.61 SG
EF 71th
Skill Gap
+0.32 SG/round
tight edge for Meissner, Mac
Finau, Tony
+0.28 SG
EF 79th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.1%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+8.1%
Meissner, Mac vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Meissner, Mac 60.1% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+8.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.32 SG/round. Expected finish: 71.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Meissner, Mac 60.1%
+8.1 pts
Spread
+0.3
+8.1 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →