Morikawa, Collin vs Lee, Min Woo prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lee, Min Woo 26 - Morikawa, Collin 16. Morikawa, Collin is favored with a 72.5% win probability. The spread is 0.62.
Lee, Min Woo
+1.08
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Morikawa, Collin
+1.68
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Lee, Min WooMorikawa, Collin
-141
Best Odds
+23.9%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Morikawa, Collin
91623
Lee, Min Woo
192633
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Morikawa, Collin
Strokes Gained
+1.68/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.092 SG adj
Expected Finish
16th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Morikawa, Collin
+1.68 SG
EF 16th
Skill Gap
+0.62 SG/round
meaningful edge for Morikawa, Collin
Lee, Min Woo
+1.08 SG
EF 26th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
72.5%
Books Say
58.5%
Edge
+23.9%
Morikawa, Collin vs Lee, Min Woo: Model gives Morikawa, Collin 72.5% win probability vs 58.5% implied (+23.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.62 SG/round. Expected finish: 16.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Morikawa, Collin 72.5%
+23.9 pts
Spread
+0.6
+23.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →