Mouw, William vs Kohles, Ben prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kohles, Ben 79 - Mouw, William 85. Mouw, William is favored with a 52.8% win probability. The spread is -0.16.
Kohles, Ben
+0.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Mouw, William
+0.09
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kohles, BenMouw, William
+106
Best Odds
+8.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mouw, William
788592
Kohles, Ben
727986
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Mouw, William
Strokes Gained
+0.09/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.196 SG adj
Expected Finish
85th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Mouw, William
+0.09 SG
EF 85th
Skill Gap
-0.16 SG/round
tight edge for Kohles, Ben
Kohles, Ben
+0.24 SG
EF 79th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
52.8%
Books Say
48.5%
Edge
+8.8%
Mouw, William vs Kohles, Ben: Model gives Mouw, William 52.8% win probability vs 48.5% implied (+8.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 85.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mouw, William 52.8%
+8.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+8.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →