Poston, J.T. vs Homa, Max prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Homa, Max 55 - Poston, J.T. 48. Poston, J.T. is favored with a 69.7% win probability. The spread is 0.09.
Homa, Max
+0.43
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Poston, J.T.
+0.51
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Homa, MaxPoston, J.T.
-120
Best Odds
+27.8%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Poston, J.T.
414855
Homa, Max
485562
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Poston, J.T.
Strokes Gained
+0.51/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.127 SG adj
Expected Finish
48th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Poston, J.T.
+0.51 SG
EF 48th
Skill Gap
+0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Homa, Max
+0.43 SG
EF 55th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
69.7%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+27.8%
Poston, J.T. vs Homa, Max: Model gives Poston, J.T. 69.7% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+27.8% edge). Expected finish: 48.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Poston, J.T. 69.7%
+27.8 pts
Spread
+0.1
+27.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →