Smotherman, Austin vs Bauchou, Zach prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bauchou, Zach 84 - Smotherman, Austin 86. Smotherman, Austin is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The spread is -0.31.
Bauchou, Zach
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Smotherman, Austin
+0.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bauchou, ZachSmotherman, Austin
-108
Best Odds
+10.6%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smotherman, Austin
798693
Bauchou, Zach
778491
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Smotherman, Austin
Strokes Gained
+0.03/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.217 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Smotherman, Austin
+0.03 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
-0.31 SG/round
tight edge for Bauchou, Zach
Bauchou, Zach
+0.34 SG
EF 84th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.4%
Books Say
51.9%
Edge
+10.6%
Smotherman, Austin vs Bauchou, Zach: Model gives Smotherman, Austin 57.4% win probability vs 51.9% implied (+10.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smotherman, Austin 57.4%
+10.6 pts
Spread
-0.3
+10.6 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →