Stevens, Sam vs Conners, Corey prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Conners, Corey 39 - Stevens, Sam 29. Stevens, Sam is favored with a 71.2% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Conners, Corey
+0.77
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Stevens, Sam
+0.74
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Conners, CoreyStevens, Sam
-120
Best Odds
+30.5%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Stevens, Sam
222936
Conners, Corey
323946
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Stevens, Sam
Strokes Gained
+0.74/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.194 SG adj
Expected Finish
29th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Stevens, Sam
+0.74 SG
EF 29th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Conners, Corey
+0.77 SG
EF 39th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
71.2%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+30.5%
Stevens, Sam vs Conners, Corey: Model gives Stevens, Sam 71.2% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+30.5% edge). Expected finish: 29.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Stevens, Sam 71.2%
+30.5 pts
Spread
-0.0
+30.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →