Straka, Sepp vs Gotterup, Chris prediction for April 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gotterup, Chris 38 - Straka, Sepp 17. Straka, Sepp is favored with a 72.8% win probability. The spread is -0.16.
Gotterup, Chris
+1.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Heritage
Straka, Sepp
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Gotterup, ChrisStraka, Sepp
-118
Best Odds
+34.4%
Edge
2.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Straka, Sepp
101724
Gotterup, Chris
313845
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Heritage
Course
Harbour Town Golf Links
Field
82 players
Wind
13 mph
Temp
80°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Straka, Sepp
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.477 SG adj
Expected Finish
17th / 82
Matchup Analysis
Straka, Sepp
+1.03 SG
EF 17th
Skill Gap
-0.16 SG/round
tight edge for Gotterup, Chris
Gotterup, Chris
+1.22 SG
EF 38th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
72.8%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+34.4%
Straka, Sepp vs Gotterup, Chris: Model gives Straka, Sepp 72.8% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+34.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 17.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Straka, Sepp 72.8%
+34.4 pts
Spread
-0.2
+34.4 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →