Suber, Jackson vs McCarthy, Denny prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McCarthy, Denny 77 - Suber, Jackson 83. Suber, Jackson is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The spread is -0.41.
McCarthy, Denny
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Suber, Jackson
+0.17
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McCarthy, DennySuber, Jackson
+105
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Suber, Jackson
768390
McCarthy, Denny
707784
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Suber, Jackson
Strokes Gained
+0.17/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.176 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Suber, Jackson
+0.17 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.41 SG/round
meaningful edge for McCarthy, Denny
McCarthy, Denny
+0.59 SG
EF 77th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
52.5%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+7.6%
Suber, Jackson vs McCarthy, Denny: Model gives Suber, Jackson 52.5% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.41 SG/round. Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Suber, Jackson 52.5%
+7.6 pts
Spread
-0.4
+7.6 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →