Wallace, Matt vs Kim, Michael prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kim, Michael 73 - Wallace, Matt 74. Wallace, Matt is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Kim, Michael
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Wallace, Matt
+0.63
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kim, MichaelWallace, Matt
+100
Best Odds
+9.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Wallace, Matt
677481
Kim, Michael
667380
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Wallace, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.63/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.019 SG adj
Expected Finish
74th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Wallace, Matt
+0.63 SG
EF 74th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kim, Michael
+0.64 SG
EF 73th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.7%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+9.4%
Wallace, Matt vs Kim, Michael: Model gives Wallace, Matt 54.7% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+9.4% edge). Expected finish: 74.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Wallace, Matt 54.7%
+9.4 pts
Spread
-0.0
+9.4 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →