LAA vs SEA Prediction

José Soriano (LAA away, 3.59 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 50.2%) vs Bryan Woo (SEA home, 8.7 K/9, 24.3% K rate, B 57.4%). This looks like SEA home edge (Woo 57.4% vs Soriano 50.2%), and model confirms: SEA 62.4% (market -188 prices SEA 65.3%). Model -4.1% edge on SEA means market is correctly pricing game. NRFI very strong: 61.1% model prob (2.6% edge) — market respects this (-188 SEA favors low-scoring game). T-Mobile Park Seattle cold (64.1°F, 6.9 mph wind neutral) = low run environment. Zone: Away ML -3.7% edge lands in RED zone (43.6% WR) — picking away ML is losing. Home ML at -4.1% edge isn't actionable either (YELLOW 56.3% WR on home but edge negative). NRFI edge +2.6% (61.1% model prob, market implying 58.5% under NRFI) is slight lean but under 3% edge is minimal. RECOMMENDATION: SKIP. Market has priced this efficiently. SEA -188 is correct. Avoid picking sides in efficient market.

• Soriano (LAA, 3.59 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 50.2%) vs Woo (SEA, 8.7 K/9, 24.3% K rate, B 57.4%) = Woo advantage
• T-Mobile Park cold (64.1°F) = run suppression (~0.5 run reduction)
• + 3 more factors with Premium