Who is predicted to win PHI vs NYM on June 26, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, NYM is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is NYM 5.2 - PHI 5.3.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

PHI vs NYM Prediction & Picks — June 26, 2026

PHI vs NYM prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 5.2 - PHI 5.3. NYM is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.

NYM

5.2

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.0

PHI

5.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.4%

48.6%

NYMPHI

+1.5

Run Line (NYM)

8.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,443 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

PHI

357

NYM

357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Zack Wheeler R

PHI

FF37%95 mph23% whiff

SI16%95 mph4% whiff

ST14%81 mph33% whiff

R TBD

NYM

Weather Impact

Citi Field

79°F10 mph wind

HR: 1.074 Total: 1.041

9mph out

Bullpen Comparison

PHI

4.19ERA

3.22FIP

10.30K/9

3.17BB/9

1.34WHIP

NYM

3.44ERA

3.69FIP

9.32K/9

3.58BB/9

1.21WHIP

Betting Edges

TOTAL UNDER 8.0

-32.8% EV

-110

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-28.2% EV

-137

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-18.5% EV

+114

ML AWAY

-16.2% EV

-152

TOTAL OVER 8.0

+14.0% EV

-110

ML HOME

+12.9% EV

+128

First 5 Innings & NRFI

PHI F5

2.9 runs

43.8% win

NYM F5

2.9 runs

42.7% win

F5 Total

5.8

NRFI

48.0%

YRFI

52.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.16

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.9

Over 0.5 HR

94%

Over 1.5 HR

76%

No HR

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Zack Wheeler

0.0 K projected

PHI | K/9: 0.0

0.0 K projected

NYM | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

PHI8 injured

Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL

Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL

Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY

Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY

Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL

Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

NYM8 injured

Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL

Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL

Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL

Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL

Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL

Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Zack Wheeler Value Play Ruined by TBD Mets Starter

YELLOW ZONE66.0% WR (n=5)

Zack Wheeler (B-, 26.6% K, 9.0 K/9) is a solid midrotation arm. NYM is +127 (43.9% implied) but model sees 51.4% home win prob. That's a 7.4% edge on the home underdog. The crippling issue: NYM's starter is TBD. If they roll out a comparable B-/B starter, this is sneaky value on the home dog. If it's a back-end arm, PHI should be favored. Play it BUT reduce unit size. Wind at Citi Field is 9mph out (+1.041 multiplier), which would support OVER 8.0 (14% edge), but again, totals market is broken.

TBD pitcher makes this a MAJOR data integrity risk; model likely assuming average-quality arm
Wheeler quality (26.6% K, B- grade) is legitimate; if NYM starter is similar, game is even
+ 2 more factors with Premium

TBD PITCHERML VALUE

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Edge Analysis

Moneyline

NYM 51.4%

-28.2 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-28.2 pts

Total

8.0

+14.0 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

PHI vs NYM Prediction