GSW vs PHX prediction for April 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHX 108.8 - GSW 106.1. PHX is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The spread is -3.0 and the total is 219.5.
PHX
108.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 219.5
GSW
106.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHXGSW
-3.0
Spread (PHX)
219.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (354 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
GSW
96106116
PHX
99109119
Starting Lineups
GSW5 OUT
Stephen Curry26.6PPG3.6RPG4.7APG
Brandin Podziemski13.8PPG5.1RPG3.7APG
Draymond Green8.4PPG5.5RPG5.5APG
De'Anthony Melton12.3PPG3.2RPG2.6APG
Al Horford8.3PPG4.9RPG2.6APG
PHX2 OUT
Devin Booker26.1PPG3.9RPG6.0APG
Dillon Brooks20.2PPG3.6RPG1.8APG
Collin Gillespie12.7PPG4.1RPG4.6APG
Royce O'Neale9.8PPG4.8RPG2.7APG
Jalen Green17.8PPG3.6RPG2.8APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHX 57.5%
-0.2 pts
Spread
-3.0
-0.2 pts
Total
219.5
-4.6 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →