FINAL: ANA 5 — EDM 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ANA 3.54 - EDM 3.08 (ANA at 53.3% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
ANA
3.54
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
EDM
3.08
Projected Score
Win Probability
ANAEDM
+1.5
Spread (ANA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
EDM
2.03.14.2
ANA
2.53.54.6
Projected
ANA 3.54 — EDM 3.08
Actual
ANA 5 — EDM 2
Pick Results
ANA MLmlWIN+0.56u
Game Odds
ANA ML
+110
EDM ML
-132
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
ANA Edge
+5.7%
EDM Edge
-10.2%
Projected Total
6.62
+0.12 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Connor Ingram
9-82.55 GAA90.1% SV
Lukas Dostal
23-233.12 GAA88.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 55.8% – 57.5% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=178)
Model shows +10.2% edge favoring EDM at -132 odds (+46.7% model prob vs 56.9% market), but the +1.96 goal spread disagreement combined with Dostal's catastrophic 3.19 GAA, playoff desperation context, and skip calibration data showing high-edge games historically underperform (47.8% WR on ALL|spread_ml) indicate MODEL OVERCONFIDENCE — market has correctly integrated Anaheim's must-win home desperation, making the edge suspicious.
Key Factors
- Goalie WR: EDM Ingram .8962 SV% vs ANA Dostal .8863 = +0.99% edge, but Dostal just beat TBL in Game 5, suggesting contextual performance trumps seasonal stats
- Playoff desperation: ANA at home, if EDM loses they are eliminated (down 3-2) — market correctly prices this urgency
- High edge danger: 10.23% edge is in suspicious zone per calibration (high-edge games worst performers, 47% WR historically)
- Away dog poison: NHL away ML 42.7% WR in market data — EDM +102 sits in historically bad away underdog zone
- Model-market gap: 1.96 goal spread disagreement is extreme; when market and model diverge this much in playoffs, market usually wins (sharp action integrated)
Risk Factors
- Model override risk: Forcing EDM into away dog poison zone where we historically lose 57% of the time
- Playoff unknown: Best-of-7 desperation and home-ice advantage harder to quantify; ANA crowd support in elimination game is real leverage
- Calibration mismatch: Skip calibration shows NHL|CM0|total PENALIZE (46% WR), suggesting model is overconfident on high-edge calls
GOALIE CONFIRMEDMODEL MARKET CONFLICTHIGH EDGE WARNINGAWAY DOG POISONRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 53.3%
+5.7 pts
Spread
+1.5
+5.7 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →