FINAL: ANA 5 — EDM 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ANA 3.54 - EDM 3.08 (ANA at 53.3% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
ANA
3.54
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
EDM
3.08
Projected Score
Win Probability
ANAEDM
+1.5
Spread (ANA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
EDM
2.03.14.2
ANA
2.53.54.6
Projected
ANA 3.54 — EDM 3.08
Actual
ANA 5 — EDM 2
Pick Results
ANA MLmlWIN+0.56u
Game Odds
ANA ML
+110
EDM ML
-132
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
ANA Edge
+5.7%
EDM Edge
-10.2%
Projected Total
6.62
+0.12 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Connor Ingram
9-82.55 GAA90.1% SV
Lukas Dostal
23-233.12 GAA88.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 55.8% – 57.5% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=178)
Model shows +10.2% edge favoring EDM at -132 odds (+46.7% model prob vs 56.9% market), but the +1.96 goal spread disagreement combined with Dostal's catastrophic 3.19 GAA, playoff desperation context, and skip calibration data showing high-edge games historically underperform (47.8% WR on ALL|spread_ml) indicate MODEL OVERCONFIDENCE — market has correctly integrated Anaheim's must-win home desperation, making the edge suspicious.
Key Factors
- Goalie WR: EDM Ingram .8962 SV% vs ANA Dostal .8863 = +0.99% edge, but Dostal just beat TBL in Game 5, suggesting contextual performance trumps seasonal stats
- Playoff desperation: ANA at home, if EDM loses they are eliminated (down 3-2) — market correctly prices this urgency
- High edge danger: 10.23% edge is in suspicious zone per calibration (high-edge games worst performers, 47% WR historically)
- Away dog poison: NHL away ML 42.7% WR in market data — EDM +102 sits in historically bad away underdog zone
- Model-market gap: 1.96 goal spread disagreement is extreme; when market and model diverge this much in playoffs, market usually wins (sharp action integrated)
Risk Factors
- Model override risk: Forcing EDM into away dog poison zone where we historically lose 57% of the time
- Playoff unknown: Best-of-7 desperation and home-ice advantage harder to quantify; ANA crowd support in elimination game is real leverage
- Calibration mismatch: Skip calibration shows NHL|CM0|total PENALIZE (46% WR), suggesting model is overconfident on high-edge calls
GOALIE CONFIRMEDMODEL MARKET CONFLICTHIGH EDGE WARNINGAWAY DOG POISONRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 53.3%
+5.7 pts
Spread
+1.5
+5.7 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →