MIN vs COL prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 4.24 - MIN 2.39. COL is favored with a 72.2% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
COL
4.24
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIN
2.39
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLMIN
-1.5
Spread (COL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.5% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
1.32.43.5
COL
3.24.25.3
Projected
COL 4.24 — MIN 2.39
Actual
COL 4 — MIN 3
Game Odds
COL ML
-225
MIN ML
+184
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
COL Edge
+2.9%
MIN Edge
-7.4%
Projected Total
6.63
+0.13 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV
Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 75.5% – 76.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN -1YELLOW ZONE51.8% WR (n=79)
COL has a small edge (2.95% prob, +0.69 goals after injuries), but recent model performance is poor (-46% ROI in 14d), zone profitability is marginal (YELLOW, 51.8% WR), and playoff hockey with goalie parity makes the market's -225 line reasonably efficient.
Key Factors
- Model edge: 72.15% COL win prob vs 69.2% implied by -225 ML = +2.95% edge (insufficient to overcome juice and model overconfidence)
- Goalie matchup: Wallstedt (.9148 SV%) vs Blackwood (.9038 SV%) — MIN advantage 0.11% in SV%, offsets ~0.05-0.10 goal swing
- Zone profile: NHL|ml|home|favorite in 70-75% prob bucket = YELLOW zone with 51.8% WR (n=79), z=0.34 — marginally profitable but not compelling
- Injury impact: COL -0.20 goals (Lehkonen + Malinski), MIN -0.05 goals (Stramel) = net -0.15 goal swing to COL
- Recent form: COL 4-1 L5 (W3 streak), MIN 2-3 L5 (W1 streak) — form advantage COL ~0.30 goals, but playoff variance is high
Risk Factors
- Model overconfidence: 72.15% win prob in high-prob bucket historically shows LOWEST win rates (edge anti-correlated with prob) — model is likely overestimating COL edge
- Recent performance catastrophe: 1W-2L (-46% ROI) in last 14 days on all ML bets — suggests model picks are in a losing streak and confidence thresholds need recalibration
- Playoff volatility: 1-goal games are 48% of all NHL games; with injuries and goalie parity, actual COL win prob is more like 55-60%, not 72%
GOALIE CONFIRMEDPLAYOFF GAMEINJURY IMPACTMODEL OVERCONFIDENCERECENT PERFORMANCE REDYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 72.2%
+2.9 pts
Spread
-1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →