MIN vs COL prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 4.24 - MIN 2.39. COL is favored with a 72.2% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
COL
4.24
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIN
2.39
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLMIN
-1.5
Spread (COL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.3% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
1.32.43.5
COL
3.24.25.3
Projected
COL 4.24 — MIN 2.39
Actual
COL 4 — MIN 3
Game Odds
COL ML
-225
MIN ML
+184
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
COL Edge
+2.9%
MIN Edge
-7.4%
Projected Total
6.63
+0.13 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV
Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 75.5% – 76.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN -1YELLOW ZONE51.8% WR (n=79)
COL has a small edge (2.95% prob, +0.69 goals after injuries), but recent model performance is poor (-46% ROI in 14d), zone profitability is marginal (YELLOW, 51.8% WR), and playoff hockey with goalie parity makes the market's -225 line reasonably efficient.
Key Factors
- Model edge: 72.15% COL win prob vs 69.2% implied by -225 ML = +2.95% edge (insufficient to overcome juice and model overconfidence)
- Goalie matchup: Wallstedt (.9148 SV%) vs Blackwood (.9038 SV%) — MIN advantage 0.11% in SV%, offsets ~0.05-0.10 goal swing
- Zone profile: NHL|ml|home|favorite in 70-75% prob bucket = YELLOW zone with 51.8% WR (n=79), z=0.34 — marginally profitable but not compelling
- Injury impact: COL -0.20 goals (Lehkonen + Malinski), MIN -0.05 goals (Stramel) = net -0.15 goal swing to COL
- Recent form: COL 4-1 L5 (W3 streak), MIN 2-3 L5 (W1 streak) — form advantage COL ~0.30 goals, but playoff variance is high
Risk Factors
- Model overconfidence: 72.15% win prob in high-prob bucket historically shows LOWEST win rates (edge anti-correlated with prob) — model is likely overestimating COL edge
- Recent performance catastrophe: 1W-2L (-46% ROI) in last 14 days on all ML bets — suggests model picks are in a losing streak and confidence thresholds need recalibration
- Playoff volatility: 1-goal games are 48% of all NHL games; with injuries and goalie parity, actual COL win prob is more like 55-60%, not 72%
GOALIE CONFIRMEDPLAYOFF GAMEINJURY IMPACTMODEL OVERCONFIDENCERECENT PERFORMANCE REDYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 72.2%
+2.9 pts
Spread
-1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →