Alejandro Tabilo vs Roberto Bautista Agut prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista Agut 0 - Alejandro Tabilo 0. Alejandro Tabilo is favored with a 77.4% win probability.
Roberto Bautista Agut
1431
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alejandro Tabilo
1485
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista AgutAlejandro Tabilo
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Aix en Provence - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (1,386 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Aix en Provence - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alejandro Tabilo
Roberto Bautista Agut
Alejandro Tabilo leads by 54 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alejandro Tabilo SPW
69.5%
Above tour avg
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
63.5%
Above tour avg
● Alejandro Tabilo has a significant serve advantage (+6.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alejandro Tabilo ML
-391
Model: 77%
Edge: -2.2%
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
+321
Model: 23%
Edge: -1.1%
Key Matchup Factors
- Alejandro Tabilo has a moderate 54-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alejandro Tabilo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Alejandro Tabilo at 77%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Tabilo 77.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →