Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francisco Cerundolo 0 - Alex de Minaur 0. Alex de Minaur is favored with a 57.0% win probability.
Francisco Cerundolo
1629
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Alex de Minaur
1726
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Francisco CerundoloAlex de Minaur
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Alex de Minaur
Francisco Cerundolo
Alex de Minaur leads by 97 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Alex de Minaur SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
Francisco Cerundolo SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alex de Minaur ML
-1072
Model: 57%
Edge: -34.4%
Francisco Cerundolo ML
+846
Model: 43%
Edge: +32.4%
Model Projection
Francisco Cerundolo ML +846 · +32.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alex de Minaur has a moderate 97-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alex de Minaur has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alex de Minaur 57.0%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →