Alexandra Eala vs Caty McNally prediction for August 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Caty McNally 0 - Alexandra Eala 0. Alexandra Eala is favored with a 54.6% win probability.
Caty McNally
1629
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Alexandra Eala
1750
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Caty McNallyAlexandra Eala
Hard
Surface
WTA Canadian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.5% (14,793 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Canadian Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexandra Eala
Caty McNally
Alexandra Eala leads by 122 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Alexandra Eala SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
Caty McNally SPW
55.5%
Below tour avg
● Alexandra Eala has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexandra Eala holds a commanding 122-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alexandra Eala has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →