Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Clement Tabur 0 - Alexei Popyrin 0. Clement Tabur is favored with a 59.9% win probability.
Clement Tabur
1535
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alexei Popyrin
1411
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Clement TaburAlexei Popyrin
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,463 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexei Popyrin
Clement Tabur
Clement Tabur leads by 124 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alexei Popyrin SPW
64.8%
Above tour avg
Clement Tabur SPW
66.9%
Above tour avg
● Clement Tabur has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alexei Popyrin ML
+237
Model: 40%
Edge: +10.4%
Clement Tabur ML
-281
Model: 60%
Edge: -13.8%
Model Projection
Alexei Popyrin ML +237 · +10.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Clement Tabur holds a commanding 124-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Clement Tabur has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Clement Tabur 59.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →