Andre Goransson / Evan King vs Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski 0 - Andre Goransson / Evan King 0. Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski is favored with a 54.3% win probability.
Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andre Goransson / Evan King
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Christian Harrison / Neal SkupskiAndre Goransson / Evan King
Clay
Surface
ATP Madrid - Doubles
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,363 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Madrid - Doubles
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andre Goransson / Evan King
Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski
Andre Goransson / Evan King leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andre Goransson / Evan King SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andre Goransson / Evan King ML
+232
Model: 46%
Edge: +15.5%
Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski ML
-295
Model: 54%
Edge: -20.4%
Model Projection
Andre Goransson / Evan King ML +232 · +15.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Christian Harrison / Neal Skupski 54.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →