Andrea Pellegrino vs Roman Andres Burruchaga prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roman Andres Burruchaga 0 - Andrea Pellegrino 0. Roman Andres Burruchaga is favored with a 54.3% win probability.
Roman Andres Burruchaga
1502
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Andrea Pellegrino
1516
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Roman Andres BurruchagaAndrea Pellegrino
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Cagliari - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (1,386 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Cagliari - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Andrea Pellegrino
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 14 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Roman Andres Burruchaga SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrea Pellegrino ML
+207
Model: 46%
Edge: +13.1%
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML
-243
Model: 54%
Edge: -16.5%
Model Projection
Andrea Pellegrino ML +207 · +13.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (14-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Roman Andres Burruchaga has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Roman Andres Burruchaga 54.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →