Billy Harris vs Diego Dedura prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Diego Dedura 0 - Billy Harris 0. Diego Dedura is favored with a 79.4% win probability.
Diego Dedura
1499
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Billy Harris
1330
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Diego DeduraBilly Harris
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Mauthausen
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (1,231 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Mauthausen
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Billy Harris
Diego Dedura
Diego Dedura leads by 169 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Billy Harris SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Diego Dedura SPW
67.0%
Above tour avg
● Diego Dedura has a significant serve advantage (+6.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Billy Harris ML
+187
Model: 21%
Edge: -14.3%
Diego Dedura ML
-217
Model: 79%
Edge: +11.0%
Model Projection
Diego Dedura ML -217 · +11.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Diego Dedura holds a commanding 169-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Diego Dedura has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Diego Dedura at 79%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Diego Dedura 79.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →