Dusan Lajovic vs Jurij Rodionov prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jurij Rodionov 0 - Dusan Lajovic 0. Jurij Rodionov is favored with a 64.6% win probability.
Jurij Rodionov
1530
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Dusan Lajovic
1293
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jurij RodionovDusan Lajovic
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (2,463 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Dusan Lajovic
Jurij Rodionov
Jurij Rodionov leads by 236 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Dusan Lajovic SPW
56.5%
Below tour avg
Jurij Rodionov SPW
60.8%
Below tour avg
● Jurij Rodionov has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Dusan Lajovic ML
-232
Model: 35%
Edge: -34.5%
Jurij Rodionov ML
+191
Model: 65%
Edge: +30.3%
Model Projection
Jurij Rodionov ML +191 · +30.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jurij Rodionov holds a commanding 236-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jurij Rodionov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jurij Rodionov 64.6%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →