Felix Gill vs Dalibor Svrcina prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Dalibor Svrcina 0 - Felix Gill 0. Felix Gill is favored with a 92.2% win probability.
Dalibor Svrcina
1505
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Felix Gill
1562
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Dalibor SvrcinaFelix Gill
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Ostrava
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.4% (1,297 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Ostrava
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Felix Gill
Dalibor Svrcina
Felix Gill leads by 57 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Felix Gill SPW
67.5%
Above tour avg
Dalibor Svrcina SPW
50.0%
Below tour avg
● Felix Gill has a significant serve advantage (+17.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Gill ML
+150
Model: 92%
Edge: +52.2%
Dalibor Svrcina ML
-173
Model: 8%
Edge: -55.6%
Model Projection
Felix Gill ML +150 · +52.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill has a moderate 57-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Felix Gill has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Felix Gill at 92%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Gill 92.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →